Middle East Conflict Shakes Confidence of Global Finance Professionals
Macau and Hong KongApril 24, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — ACCA (Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA® (Institute of Management Accountants) recently jointly released the Q1 2026 Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS). This quarter’s survey was conducted from March 3 to 19, coinciding with a new wave of conflict in the Middle East. As a result, confidence among global finance professionals has plummeted sharply, with international and geopolitical instability rising to the top risk identified by finance experts.
Companies surveyed are grappling with the fourth global economic shock of this decade, with confidence levels approaching historic lows last seen during the early stages of the pandemic in 2020. Confidence among surveyed CFOs has also seen a significant decline. The top three risk factors this quarter are geopolitics, cybersecurity, and the economy. This marks only the second time since GECS began including global risk surveys in Q2 2023 that economic risk has not been ranked as the primary concern.
Rachael Johnson, ACCA’s Head of Risk Management and Corporate Governance, stated: “This shift does not indicate a reduction in economic concerns, but rather a growing awareness of how various forces collectively shape the macro landscape. Respondents noted that artificial intelligence and cyber threats amplify other risks, and emphasized that the erosion of trust in institutions, information, and leadership has become a defining characteristic of today’s world.”
Although a two-week ceasefire was reached in the Middle East in mid-April, briefly sparking hope for some recovery after what has been the worst oil shock since the 1970s, immense uncertainty still looms over the global economy. Even if more lasting solutions are found, energy and other commodity prices are likely to remain elevated.
Additionally, corporate cost pressures have risen markedly in the first quarter. The proportion of respondents reporting increased operating costs has reached its highest level since Q3 2022. Given the recent surge in energy and other key commodity prices, along with ongoing supply chain strains, cost pressures on businesses are expected to intensify further in the coming months.
Providing a slight boost to market sentiment, the global new orders index has steadily risen, now returning to its historical average. The global employment index, reflecting hiring and layoff decisions, has also improved, though it remains below the historical average. These results may be attributed to the resilience of the global economy prior to the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.
Alain Mulder, Senior Director of European Operations and Global Special Projects at IMA, commented: “The global economy performed reasonably well in early 2026, but immense uncertainty now clouds the outlook. Inflation has begun to rise significantly, and the longer energy and other commodity prices remain high, the greater the downside risks to economic growth.”
Jonathan Ashworth, Chief Economist at ACCA, noted: “The current major supply shock has placed policymakers in an extremely challenging position. After years of inflation exceeding target levels, central bank governors must act cautiously to prevent inflation from spiraling out of control. Developments in the Middle East over the coming weeks and months will be crucial in shaping the global economic outlook for the remainder of 2026.”
Click here to read the Q1 2026 GECS report.