The war between the United States and Israel against Iran has triggered geopolitical and energy shocks. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that an escalation could push the global economy into a recession, and even under the most optimistic scenario, it could cause long-term damage. Against this backdrop, country risks are being rapidly reassessed, and investors have begun reallocating capital and personal risk exposure across jurisdictions.
LONDONMay 12, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — The latest edition of the Henley & Partners–AlphaGeo Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index reveals a dramatic reshuffling of global risks. This index combines structural resilience, real-time market signals, and investor behavior, providing a data-driven, clear picture of how countries and investors are responding to the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
In this special edition, the index is based on Country Risk Premium (CRP) data as of April 1, 2026, and has been stress-tested against Henley & Partners’ current client demand trends.
Rapid Restructuring Underway
“Resilience is a long-term attribute that doesn’t change overnight. But risk is the opposite—it shifts quickly. Markets are repricing risk in real-time,” said Dr. Parag Khanna, founder and CEO of AlphaGeo.
Traditional safe havens continue to top the rankings, with Switzerland in first place, Denmark second, Sweden third, Singapore fourth, and Norway fifth—highlighting the strength and institutional stability of the Nordic cluster.
Several emerging economies have seen significant upward moves, with India jumping 40 places to 64th, the Philippines rising 40 places to 74th, Turkey climbing 32 places to 88th, Mexico advancing 30 places to 66th, and Morocco gaining 28 places to 70th.
Dr. Christian H. Kaelin, Chairman of Henley & Partners, said: “What we are witnessing is not just repricing, but increasing divergence. No single country can offer lasting security or simultaneously provide all the attributes investors seek—stability, access, opportunity, and safety. However, when these elements are combined, they form a more powerful force: strategic optionality.”
These shifts reflect a redistribution of investor confidence. Investors are differentiating between countries based on policy credibility, strategic positioning, and resilience against geopolitical shocks.
Dr. Tim Klatte, Partner at Grant Thornton China, said: “The traditional narrative that ‘developed countries are safe, emerging markets are risky’ is breaking down. Investors are no longer thinking in regional blocs—they are assessing resilience on a country-by-country basis and adjusting their capital and personal allocations accordingly.”
Among major economies, China (up 6 places to 31st) is the most notable riser, while Canada (down 4 places to 15th) is the biggest decliner among the G7 nations. The United States (24th) and the United Kingdom (19th) remained unchanged.
Countries affected by conflict, sanctions, or structural vulnerabilities saw significant declines, including Belarus (down 57 places to 117th), Bosnia and Herzegovina (down 32 places to 89th), and Ukraine (down 28 places to 131st).
Accelerated Investor Response
These changes are already reflected in investor behavior.
Henley & Partners’ internal data shows that since January 2026, applications have been submitted by nationals from over 70 countries, involving more than 40 global residence and citizenship programs.
Demand for sovereignty diversification is surging, with significant increases in applications for multiple investment migration programs: Greece (+61%), Italy (+43%), Malta (+38%), and Nauru (+200%). Meanwhile, inquiries for New Zealand’s investment migration program have risen by 165%, Costa Rica by 44%, and Turkey by 35%.
The Middle East conflict is driving this reconfiguration.
Dr. Robert Mogielnicki, a political economist specializing in the Middle East, said: “The current conflict has significantly raised the risks faced by investors, governments, and globally mobile individuals. The Strait of Hormuz will remain a contentious strategic chokepoint, and even if a negotiated solution is eventually reached, the geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to dissipate.”
In the Gulf region, inquiries from UAE clients have increased by 41%, and applications by 26%, primarily driven by expatriates in the UAE seeking more options.
Although core European economies still show resilience on a relative level, the macro outlook is becoming increasingly fragile.
Award-winning journalist and geopolitical commentator Misha Glenny said: “While Europe will face economic challenges in the short term, signs that it is gradually coalescing into a political community suggest it is likely to remain near the top of the index.” However, he warned that this resilience masks deeper structural pressures in Europe—from weak growth and energy vulnerability to increasing political fragmentation across the continent.
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