Writer | Liu Huafang
Just now, I saw the news that TSMC will invest in the second phase of the wafer manufacturing plant in Arizona, USA. First, it will develop a 5nm process, and then 3nm. It will be able to mass-produce 5nm chips in about 2024, with a total investment plan of 40 billion US dollars.
Arizona is very happy. This is a major project to attract investment. It is TSMC, the absolute leader in the global wafer manufacturing field. The people who come to the groundbreaking ceremony are not politicians, but top entrepreneurs.
Let’s see how powerful TSMC’s movies are. US President Biden, TSMC founder Zhang Zhongmou, TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin, TSMC President Wei Zhejia, Apple CEO Cook, the famous Nvidia boss Huang Renxun, AMD CEO Lisa Su, etc. Come to cheer, this is something that can make Biden brag for two weeks. Biden is coming too, don’t like him….
The United States has been promoting the return of the manufacturing industry, and high-tech fields such as chip manufacturing are naturally benchmark projects. It not only attracted TSMC, but also Samsung, bringing the global wafer manufacturing giants back to the United States, allowing the American chip manufacturing industry Returned to the head queue overnight.
Largest foreign investment in Arizona history
Biden said that it is of great significance for the United States to improve the semiconductor supply chain. This is the largest overseas investment in Arizona’s history.
Apple CEO Tim Cook said, “This is a very important moment and will be an opportunity for the United States to usher in a new era of advanced manufacturing.”
Zhang Zhongmou（Morris Chang）, founder of TSMC, said that due to geopolitical influence, free trade is basically dead.
The state of Arizona in the United States is located in the southwest, on the east side of Southern California, and its capital is Phoenix. For this state, the most famous is the Grand Canyon of Colorado. I have been there twice. Of course, after seeing the famous mountains and rivers in China, this Grand Canyon is just like that. It is amazing that the Indians used to live.
Arizona has an arid and semi-arid climate. Generally speaking, water resources are not rich, and many plants on the ground are cacti and the like. Many people will say, isn’t it a waste of water and electricity to make chips? Yes, this factory of TSMC will build a circulating water plant to maximize the use of water resources.
However, I feel that the Colorado River is just a small river. For our Yangtze River and Yellow River, it is not a river with abundant water like the Mississippi River. With all the TSMC factories running, the environmental pressure in Arizona will definitely not be small.
For Arizona, everyone is more familiar with the NBA team Phoenix Suns. Nash was very good back then, and the current Suns are also good, with stars such as Booker and Paul.
Why did you choose such a place?
It may be related to the local power supply network in the United States, and it is relatively close to California.
In addition, Samsung will also build a chip factory in Texas.
TSMC turned into “USMC”?
This concern is justified, but not entirely true. Because of the factory in Arizona, TSMC headquarters only dispatched more than 500 employees, and more employees need to be recruited locally in the United States, eventually forming about 15,000 jobs. From the perspective of final positions, this factory is still very important to TSMC, and will account for a quarter of the total number of employees.
Affected by geopolitics, TSMC cannot choose customers freely, and some customers cannot do business. At the same time, in order to avoid risks, TSMC will build factories in the United States and will also build factories in Japan. It will build factories in multiple places to spread risks. At the same time, it will also distance itself from customers. closer.
In 2022, among the top seven customers of TSMC, six are American technology giants, including Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom and other companies, which will contribute 63% of TSMC’s revenue. It is said that Tesla’s chips will also be manufactured by TSMC. This proportion will continue to rise.
It is not the best solution to build a foundry close to the customer, even if the cost is 50% higher, plus some government tax rebates and subsidies, but it is a reasonable business decision.
For example, when Apple buys iPhones from all over the world, they will assemble them in continuous regions to control costs and optimize tax rates. However, in general, it may make the terminal equipment slightly more expensive. Of course, if Apple is willing to bear some and reduce some profits, it is also possible, after all, Apple’s profits are too high.
If one day, TSMC will become a “US product point”, this is not ruled out, especially in the resolution cycle of cross-strait issues.
I believe that TSMC itself 100% does not want to become “Megatronic”. Zhang Zhongmou himself returned to Taiwan from the United States to start a business successfully, and no one wants to depend on others.
Semiconductor highland battle, China, the United States and South Korea are the protagonists in the future
Judging from the market share of global semiconductors, especially in the field of chip manufacturing, TSMC is the only one with a share of more than 50%, followed by Samsung, Intel and so on.
In the next ten years, there is a high probability that China’s semiconductor industry will catch up. It may not necessarily lead in the most advanced manufacturing process, but it is possible to succeed in the main core manufacturing process in the market. Due to the political suppression of Huawei by the United States and the provocative technological war, semiconductors have become the most important field for technological breakthroughs in China, with unprecedented capital investment and unprecedented talent investment.
A few years ago, TSMC once wanted to set up a factory in Nanjing, but was strongly criticized by Xiang Ligang, a well-known communication industry expert. Xiang Ligang believed that within the scope of TSMC’s Nanjing manufacturing process planning, the mainland’s industrial chain can be achieved and developed. Once TSMC sets up a factory, it will greatly reduce the growth space of the mainland’s industrial chain. Ultimately, the project did not take place.
Recently, the media has exposed some patent news of Huawei’s lithography technology. Hubble Investment, a subsidiary of Huawei, has also invested in a large-scale industrial chain. It is expected that Huawei is already developing lithography machine products. Of course, due to the complexity of lithography equipment, even if Huawei really wants to develop a lithography machine, the industry chain will work together instead of fighting alone.
In the context of Sino-U.S. confrontation, both China and the United States are closing the industrial chain. It is only a matter of time before China’s lithography machine technology breakthroughs. EUV will not become a hindrance to the progress of China’s semiconductors. At the same time, it cannot be ignored that if ASML in the Netherlands listens to the United States and does not sell lithography machines with advanced manufacturing processes to China, then one day ASML may want to sell them but no one will buy them.
South Korea’s Samsung Electronics has been increasing its investment in chip manufacturing. Although it is not as good as TSMC in terms of advanced manufacturing processes, the Koreans, like the Korean men’s football team, have strong willpower and will not give up. Samsung’s flagship mobile phone chips are often mixed with its own chips and Qualcomm chips in the European and American markets, and Qualcomm chips are used in the Chinese market, which reflects Samsung’s flexibility.
Japan is also working on a ten-year plan for semiconductors. However, Japan no longer has a strong terminal equipment manufacturer. Even if it produces chips with advanced processes, it may not be able to sell them. After all, Americans are still exerting influence.
China’s Taiwan region will still be the leader in the field of wafer manufacturing, and it will advance together with the American technology giants. This may not change in ten years.
The Americans have been taking action, and Intel has also restarted the foundry business-IDM2.0. With the US factories of TSMC and Samsung, the US semiconductor industry chain can be regarded as a complete closed loop.
In the long run, China, the United States and South Korea will be the protagonists in the future. The power behind them is the technology of wafer manufacturing and the capabilities of the industrial chain, which correspond to the world’s three major mobile phone equipment manufacturers. Of course, semiconductors involve all aspects. If China and the United States continue to confront each other, they will eventually form their own closed-loop semiconductor industry chain ecology. South Korea may be the only competitive country outside China and the United States.
